Rocketing oil prices on the back of the Iran war are set to boost BP’s first quarter figures after the cost of crude has surged past 100 dollars a barrel since the conflict started.
The FTSE 100 oil giant, which reports quarterly results on Tuesday, set the stage for a windfall from the crude price spike when it said earlier this month it was heading for an “exceptional” oil trading result in the first three months of the year.
The firm upgraded its first quarter oil trading guidance, which follows a “weak” out-turn for the division in the final quarter of 2025.
Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.
Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.
BP revealed that every one dollar movement per barrel in oil prices leads to a 340 million-dollar (£252 million) impact on pre-tax operating profits, and its share price has leaped nearly a third higher in the past six months as the crude rally has boosted the stock.
But the group also suggested there would be some adverse impacts, with upstream production now expected to be broadly flat compared with the previous quarter, while oil production would be slightly lower.
Net debt is also set to increase to between 25 and 27 billion dollars (£18.5 billion to £20 billion), up from 22.2 billion dollars (£16.4 billion) in the fourth quarter.
It will mark the first set of results since new chief executive Meg O’Neill took over at the helm on April 1.
She replaced Murray Auchincloss, who was ousted last year as part of a leadership overhaul by new chairman Albert Manifold.
Michael Hewson at MCH Market Insights said: “It’s important not to have too high an expectation in what will be Meg O’Neill’s first earnings announcement as chief executive, but it should set the tone for what is to come next, and while BP has its fair share of problems, the fact that she’s joining the business after such a weak fourth quarter, when it posted a 3.4 billion US dollar loss, I would suspect the bar is quite low.”
The figures follow BP’s annual general meeting for shareholders on Thursday which saw shareholders revolt against the board over climate transparency and governance concerns.
Mr Manifold saw a provisional 18.2% vote against his election in what was seen as a rebuke after BP refused to bring a shareholder climate resolution to a vote, as well as putting forward proposals to rescind previously passed climate resolutions and move future meetings fully online, with the latter two voted down by investors.
The meeting came against a backdrop of BP’s recent shift away from renewables and back towards its core oil and gas business after its failed attempt to pursue a greener agenda left it lagging behind industry rivals and facing takeover threats.
Mr Hewson said: “BP will need to show it’s serious about improving its margins, and reducing its debt pile, as well as seeing off the challenge of some institutional shareholders.”