Makerfield by-election live: Polls open in historic vote as Burnham eyes Starmer leadership challenge

Sir Keir Starmer has lashed out at political leaders at home and abroad for “trying to tear our country apart” after his home was targeted in an arson attack last year.

It comes after two men were found guilty of plotting to damage property by an Old Bailey jury this week. The court heard that a Russian-speaking mastermind known as “El Money” paid the two men to set fire to homes and a car linked to Sir Keir to spark fear and “unrest” in Britain.

The arson incidents and the arrests of the suspects triggered a wave of false online speculation about the possible motive, including one conspiracy theory which falsely claimed that the arsonists were male prostitutes seeking revenge on the PM.

The people of Makerfield are heading to the polls today to vote in what could be the most important by-election in recent history.

The outcome of the contest – triggered by the resignation of Labour MP and former minister Josh Simons – will likely determine who will be Britain’s prime minister in the years to come.

Polls suggest it will be a tight race between Labour candidate Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.

If the mayor of Greater Manchester wins, it is widely believed he’ll return to parliament to launch an official challenge for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.

If Nigel Farage’s party wins however, the leadership contest may be triggered by those already in parliament, such as former health secretary Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner.

You can read about all the candidates below:

The awkward fact that a huge faction of Sir Keir Starmer’s own party is publicly moving against him was the elephant in the room at a summit that could be his last, writes Political Correspondent Millie Cooke from Evian-les-Bains.

Police have confirmed they will not pursue a report alleging Andy Burnham may have breached lockdown rules in June 2021.

It comes after Reform reported the mayor to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) over the claim. It said Mr Burnham could have breached the rules by holding a gathering at his Warrington home.

But speaking to The Telegraph, sources close to Mr Burnham said the allegations were baseless and a “desperate” smear on the eve of the Makerfield by-election.

On Thursday morning, GMP confirmed it would not take any further action on the report.

“Following correspondence received relating to a claim that COVID 19 restrictions had been breached, work has been undertaken to review the contents by a senior investigating officer,” the force said.

“As a result of this assessment, Greater Manchester Police has concluded that no further police action will be taken.

“The correspondent has been written to and advised of this outcome.”

Polls have opened in Makerfield in what could be one of the most consequential by-elections in British history.

The fight is widely tipped to be between Labour’s Andy Burnham, who is currently Greater Manchester mayor, and Reform’s Robert Kenyon.

It is believed if Mr Burnham wins and returns to Westminster he would challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the premiership.

Here is the full list of candidates running for election:

• Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats
• Count Binface, Count Binface Party
• Andy Burnham, Labour Party
• Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party
• John Alfred Dyer, Independent
• Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
• Paul Richard Gould, Independent
• Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Robert Kenyon, Reform UK
• Robert Pownall, Independent (Protect The Wild)
• Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain
• Sarah Wakefield, Green Party
• Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
• Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party

The City of London should be freed of regulatory constraints to help boost growth, Kemi Badenoch is to argue.

The Conservative leader will call for the Financial Ombudsman Service to be replaced in an overhaul of financial-sector regulation.

In a speech today at the CityUK annual conference, Mrs Badenoch will say the burden of red tape has grown too high and has created a risk-averse culture in financial industries.

She will say: “If you eliminate risk, you also eliminate reward, you eliminate opportunity, you eliminate innovation, you eliminate growth. This is one of the reasons why the UK has become a low-growth economy.”

She wants to scrap the ombudsman, which the Tories said had become unfit for purpose.

She also wants to abolish the ring-fencing regime, which separates banks’ retail and investment arms, and which the Conservatives said prevented them from investing in the real economy.

The Tory leader also wants to adjust capital requirements for banks – the amount of cash they hold – with the aim of releasing £450bn for investment.

Wes Streeting has urged voters to get out in Makerfield and vote for Andy Burnham.

The former health secretary, who resigned amid wild speculation he would mount a leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer, has since said he believes Mr Burnham would be most likely to win a leadership challenge.

In a post on X on Thursday, he wrote: “Good luck to @AndyBurnhamGM today! Make sure you use your vote in Makerfield today – it’s a two horse race between Andy and Reform.

The latest unemployment and earnings growth figures will come as a gentle boost for Labour as voters go to the polls in Makerfield.

UK average regular earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.4 per cent in the three months to April and was 0.3 per cent higher after taking Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation into account, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.

The rate of UK unemployment fell to 4.9 per cent in the three months to April, from 5 per cent in the three months to March, according to the ONS.

A Reform UK board member has admitted Andy Burnham “has made things very difficult” for the party in the crucial Makerfield by-election, as internal data suggests Nigel Farage’s party is heading for a comfortable defeat.

Gawain Towler, a long-time ally of Reform leader Mr Farage, told Times Radio that Mr Burnham “does change the weather”, adding that it will be a “very, very hard task” beating him in Thursday’s crucial vote.

His comments come as data, collated by a separate source in Reform UK and seen by The Independent, appears to confirm that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is set to split the right-wing vote and make a big enough dent in Reform’s support to end their chances of claiming victory over Labour.

The data, collated by an experienced election campaigner who has spent significant time in the constituency since the by-election was announced, estimated that Mr Burnham is set to win by five points.

Polls will close at 10pm this evening.