Sir James Cleverly’s plan to run for to be the next mayor of London in 2028 is hugely significant not least because it means that the fight for Britain’s capital city and economic engine has become a serious contest for the first time for 14 years.
He now has the opportunity to be the vanguard of the Tory comeback.
As a former foreign secretary, home secretary, education secretary and Tory chairman, Sir James brings a vast amount of serious political experience and it means that for the first time in a decade Sir Sadiq Khan has a heavyweight opponent lined up against him.
It may not, though, be the most surprising news for people who know Sir James well, or the political bubble.
Since around 2022 Sir James’s name has been mooted as the candidate for London mayor.
With his wife recovering from illness he decided to not go for it in 2024 when he was also home secretary and desperately trying to fix Britain’s broken immigration system.
But for the past 12 months there has been increasing speculation that he would throw his hat in the ring to win London back for the Tories for the first time since Boris Johnson’s mayoralty ended in 2016.
Now, following his announcement on Saturday night, we can view the election in London in May 2028 as a serious contest and one that could be an indicator of what happens in the next general election, assuming Andy Burnham holds out until late 2028 or 2029.
Political significance of the London mayor race
The 2028 date of the London mayoral election is important. London is seen as a largely Labour city and more likely to vote left than right.
But in 2008 Boris Johnson showed that a liberal Tory – as he was then with a popular touch – could win London.
That fight though will come at an important time. We will know by then if Sir Sadiq wants a fourth term but more importantly we will know if Mr Burnham’s attempt to win back support for Labour with a smile and a bit more devolution has worked with the electorate.
Given that it is 18 months away we will also have a strong indicator whether Kemi Badenoch has turned the toxic Tory brand into a fighting machine for the general election. London will be an important test.
Finally, but most importantly, we will know if Nigel Farage and Reform UK are still a serious threat or whether they have run out of steam.
In these circumstances the Conservatives needed a big candidate, and not to mess around as they did when prevously selecting weak opponents against Sir Sadiq.
Why James Cleverly can win
While Sir James is not a Boris figure, he does have charisma and the gift of the gab. He is also a serious figure with experience and has been a former deputy mayor of London.
It is also worth remembering that the much-maligned Susan Hall – almost an accidental candidate for the Tories after everyone else in the race was knifed or quit – easily out performed the Tory national polling with 32 per cent and gave Sir Sadiq a scare he had not expected.
She had virtually no national party support and was seen as a weak candidate.
None of this will be true for Sir James who will be running when Labour have had four years in government and have already been forced to change leader and PM with the ousting of Sir Keir Starmer.
Added to that the only other significant candidate in the race is Reform’s Laila Cunningham, a former prosecutor who has already become something of a figure of mockery for her various bizarre appearances on GB News playing out on social media.
In the mayoral election system where the top two candidates run off against one another, Sir James would be a much stronger second candidate than Ms Cunningham.
Recent polling has shown strong support for Ms Cunningham and Reform in the capital but you have to wonder how long that will last and whether Sir James changes the dynamic, especially with Reform’s support continuing to slide in the national polls.
It is worth noting that apart from Havering in the east of London, Reform badly underperformed in the capital in the local elections. In an interview with The Independent, Ms Cunningham herself identified the hardline rhetoric on immigration as being a core reason why they failed in many parts of London.
The Brexit problem
Sir James does come with some baggage. He is usually blamed for the talks over the Chagos Islands which have ended up with Labour using him as an excuse to give them away to Mauritius even though they are a vital military asset.
That may be too much of a niche issue to affect voters in London.
He is also often unfairly blamed for immigration problems from his stint as home secretary even though he brought in many of the changes which have subsequently seen numbers come down.
But his biggest problem was that he was a champion of Brexit. He opposed a hard Brexit but was always in favour of leaving the EU right from being elected in 2010.
Brexit has been very unpopular in large parts of London apart from the areas in the east which are more likely to vote Reform.
Great news for Kemi Badenoch
The Tory leader will be delighted that Sir James is focussing on London. With Robert Jenrick already defected to Reform, Sir James’ departure from the scene means she will definitely be unopposed as leader until the next election.
It takes away the pressure from her even if the Tory brand continues to stall in the polls.
While it does leave her without an experienced voice around the shadow cabinet table, this also does allow her to have a major reshuffle of her top team.
Look out for names like Jack Rankin and Katie Lam to be promoted and others who have underperformed to go.
There are whispers that Sir Me Stride’s days as shadow chancellor are coming to an end and Ms Badenoch now has the perfect excuse to have a major overhaul now ahead of party conference.