When Nigel Farage landed at Heathrow on Monday from his trip to the US, he was visibly angry and rattled as he confronted Sky News reporters waiting for him at the airport, accusing them of harassing his daughter.
It meant that when he announced he was stepping down as an MP to trigger a by-election in his Clacton seat less than 24 hours later, the common consensus was that this was a desperate spur-of-the-moment decision, borne of his fury and desperation about the way his personal finances and friends had come under scrutiny.
But the truth is, it was anything but a decision made in the heat of the moment as he tried to weather a political storm. Instead, it was a tactic that the Reform UK leader has been mulling over for quite some time as he sought to ensure he remained at the nexus of the political conversation before the now inevitable installation of Andy Burnham in No 10.
Farage’s plan to take back the agenda with a by-election had even calculated a “worst case scenario” of him losing the vote and coming back later as Reform leader to win his seat in a general election, sources say.
As one ally put it: “Nigel will always have the unpredictable up his sleeve to gain the narrative and the nuclear by-election option.”
Burnham’s rapid emergence as the next prime minister had caused the Reform strategy all sorts of problems, right from the moment he declared victory in Makerfield. Suddenly, there was a politician who would take away Sir Keir Starmer as a reason to vote for Reform; worse still, it was faced with a politician who is as adept at social media as Mr Farage.
What took place in the US alongside his visit to Independence Day celebration parties was a series of meetings and discussions about reclaiming the political agenda.
Farage was under intense scrutiny like never before, with continued questions over the £5m donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and his long-term friendship with convicted criminal George Cottrell, who was tied to the heart of his operation and had also given him undeclared gifts. Both of which are now the subject of parliamentary probes.
But, to his allies and friends, in some ways, the bigger problem was Reform’s gradual slide in the polls and the way Burnham was dominating the centre of politics even before he became prime minister.
As another ally noted: “This was Nigel taking back control. It had been ‘Andy Burnham this, Andy Burnham that.’ Now Nigel is back on the front pages of every newspaper.”
Insiders have said that the extensive private polling done for the party showed it had one big trump card to play.
“There are a lot of people out there who are absolutely fed up with the establishment,” the ally noted. “The Harborne donation was having very little impact outside the Westminster bubble, but the problem was that it was dominating the media coverage of Reform.”
A by-election had always been an option for Farage to attempt to reassert his influence, but he decided to go for it after talking to friends and a belief that a standards report into the Harborne donation is being sat on to be released for maximum effect, when Burnham begins his premiership in September.
While Mr Farage was “angry” about the alleged approach to his daughter by Sky News, which the broadcaster has denied doing, he was said to be in a surprisingly confident and better mood with friends in the US, away from the microscopic scrutiny of British politics.
“He was on top of the world when he was in the US last week,” one longtime associate said.
But what he did not expect, as confirmed in an interview with the Daily Mail, was for the other parties to boycott the race, refusing to stand in what has been branded a “fake” election.
Nevertheless, at least one of his allies was prepared for the challenge from his main opponent, Count Binface, with a social media attack on the comedian behind the bin-wearing candidate, branding him the “BBC candidate” because he regularly writes for BBC shows.
Farage expects to win Clacton easily and has been prepared to sacrifice a push for the Manchester mayoralty to replace Burnham to secure his own seat.
However, sources say he has also considered the possibility of defeat.
As one ally put it: “He knows it is a gamble, but he feels it is one where he does not lose whatever happens.
“He knows he would remain Reform leader and come back and win the seat in a general election if he did lose, which seems very unlikely.”
Another noted: “What’s the worst-case scenario? He gets to go to America and make real money for the rest of his life? Oh no!”
However, the “by-election reset” does not solve some of Farage’s problems.
There is concern about the Reform vote splitting with the emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party; in particular, the support Lowe is also getting from tech billionaire Elon Musk and his allies, including Joe Rogan, on whose podcast the Restore leader has just appeared.
Some allies of Farage believe that Lowe is a Tory plant, but others regret “Nigel’s colossal mistake” of effectively forcing Lowe out of the party following a dispute last year.
Added to that, there are concerns about Farage bringing in Tories defectors, such as Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Danny Kruger, and how that has affected internal dynamics, personality clashes and policies.
One longtime ally said: “Nigel has imported the bad habits of the Tories.”
While Farage will be hoping that his by-election does not end in humiliation, he also knows it will not solve all his problems as he tries to win favour in a post-Starmer reality.