Young people using TikTok to discuss drug addiction could actually help experts predict fatal overdoses, a new study has suggested.
Researchers from Stanford University said comments on the video sharing app could be a “valuable” source of information in tracking trends in drug use.
The study, which focused on opioid-related content, analysed more than half a million TikTok comments from nearly 50,000 relevant videos posted on the platform. The team then used these to build a model to predict themes in deaths from synthetic opioids over a six month period.
Compared to forecasts of opioid-related fatalities made without TikTok comments, their model reduced the average errors in predictions by 37 per cent, the paper says.
Researchers identified five major themes relating to opioids as use, source, recovery, harm reduction, and loss, which they said showed the “diversity of opioid discourse” on the platform. They said a wide variety of first, second, and third person accounts of opioid use, showed how people were utilising the app to discuss the opioid crisis from different perspectives.
It is thought to be the first major study of TikTok comments for opioid surveillance.
The team said the research shows the “rich comment” variety on the platform can help produce timely data that is an “essential” part of tackling opioid deaths.
“Monitoring opioid-related chatter on social media can predict the course of opioid addiction and overdose epidemic,” the paper says.
“Accurately forecasting opioid mortality rate is essential to monitoring the opioid epidemic and effectively deploying resources to mitigate the crisis. We showed that TikTok comments can help improve opioid overdose mortality rate forecasting.”
It added that since TikTok is popular among young adults, it provides the opportunity to capture younger demographics in opioid surveillance.
Researchers said their analysis did not identify users at risk of overdose and that it is “important to protect the privacy and anonymity of social media users, especially given the sensitive nature of substance use disorders.”
They said they hoped the study would provide the basis for future research, explaining they experienced limitations including struggling to accurately geolocate comments and acknowledging the likely presence of some bot-written content.
In the UK, 2,621 deaths registered in 2024 were confirmed to involve an opiate and opioid – just under half of all drug-poisoning fatalities, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The number of overall drug overdose deaths soared to a 32-year high in 2024. The surge includes 195 people who died after taking lethal new synthetic opioids which are up to 100 times more potent than heroin.
TikTok has been approached for comment.