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Amid rumours of an early election, Andy Burnham’s Labour continues to hold a lead over Reform in the polls – although mixed results indicate that any contest would still remain very close.
Despite Reform’s gains in the devolved and local elections this May, the party has since become bogged down in controversies over donations.
Mr Farage has also faced competition on its right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, losing its lead in voting intention on average since Andy Burnham took office.
Polls would suggest support remains volatile, with Reform showing a marked difference in results week-on-week.
A YouGov poll released on Tuesday put the party ahead for the first time since August, after only a week earlier finding the party would come third after the Conservatives.
But there has been a considerable dip in support for the party overall, mirroring a significant fall in popularity for Mr Farage. The party leader’s latest favourability rating sits at a low of-36 this month according to one pollster – down from its peak of -27 last summer.
The latest YouGov figures also indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir.
Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 63 per cent in the latest poll.
There has also been a notable boost among 18 to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to a 27 per cent over the same time period. In comparison, only 7 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.
The Conservatives have seen a slight bump in support since Mr Burnham’s coronation, rising to an average 20 points since June.
The Greens and Lib Dems, meanwhile, appear to be suffering from rising support for the government. Ed Davey’s party have steadily dropped a few points to 11 points, recent polling shows, while the Greens have seen a starker drop from 14 points in April to just 10 this month.
The figures will come as a blow to leader Zack Polanski, who will contest Sir Keir Starmer’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras later this month as the Green Party candidate.
Labour’s rise in popularity under Mr Burnham has prompted calls for him to call an early election which, if he won, would secure him a mandate for at least five years to deliver the bold changes he has pledged as prime minister.
The prime minister has said he wants to “knock dead” the ideas, although Ms Badenoch and Mr Davey have both indicated that they are making preparations for the possibility.
But pollsters have warned that there would be no benefit in doing so for the Labour leader, with some arguing that the so-called “Burnham bounce” may already have peaked.
It would also be tricky timing for Mr Farage, who still faces the results of a parliamentary standards investigation now that he has returned to Westminster.