The first Makerfield by-election poll has placed Andy Burnham in the lead ahead of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon – by just three points.
The mayor of Greater Manchester is seeking to prove he can beat Nigel Farage’s party in the crucial contest, which could pave his way to No 10 if he were to be successful in his bid to return to Westminster.
Mr Burnham told voters that backing him would be their chance to “change Labour” as he officially launched his highly anticipated campaign on Friday.
But it could still prove a tough contest against Reform UK, after Nigel Farage’s party comfortably won every ward in the constituency at this month’s local elections.
Results of the first poll tell a similar story, suggesting Mr Burnham will win the seat – but only by a small margin.
The Survation poll, based on 369 respondents likely to vote in the election, puts the Manchester mayor narrowly in the lead with 43 points.
Reform UK’s Mr Kenyon trails just three points behind with 40 points.
Restore Britain, which was set up as a right-wing challenger by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, appears to have fractured the right-wing vote with seven points.
The Liberal Democrats are on 4 per cent, while the Green candidate – who has pulled out since the survey took place – was on 3 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives polled at just 2 per cent.
Mr Farage responded to the poll by backing his candidate and calling the contest a “two-horse race” between Labour and Reform.
The constituency, which once sat in Labour’s historic heartlands, has turned to Mr Farage’s party in recent elections.
Josh Simons, the Labour MP who stood down to make way for Mr Burnham, won in 2024 by just 5,399 votes, while Reform comfortably won every ward in the constituency at this month’s local elections.
The Greater Manchester mayor officially kicked off his campaign for the crucial contest on Friday, setting out his vision for parliament – and potentially No 10 – in front of a crowd of Labour activists and politicians.
Speaking at a community and sports club in the constituency, Mr Burnham insisted his bid to return to parliament would not be “business as usual”, and that it would instead force Westminster to “focus on the places it usually looks past”.
Reform’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who said he is “ready to take on the King of the North”.
He has been accused of sharing transphobic slurs, Covid misinformation and objectifying women in now-deleted social media posts, and when Mr Kenyon served as the Reform candidate for the 2024 general election, Searchlight magazine reported that he was Facebook “friends” with Gary Raikes, the neo-fascist founder of the New British Union.
The Independent understands that the page Mr Kenyon was friends with was a political page, rather than a personal one.