Liverpool could face a play-off match against Bournemouth to decide who gets the last remaining Champions League spot, depending on the outcome of the final day’s fixtures. The two clubs are battling for fifth in the Premier League as we head into the final round of fixtures. Liverpool will face ninth-placed Brentford at home, while Bournemouth will travel to the City Ground to play Nottingham Forest after drawing with Manchester City on Tuesday night.
The two clubs are currently separated by three points with Liverpool simply needing to avoid defeat to claim a fifth-placed finish. If they lose against Brentford, it will open the door for Bournemouth, but there would have to be a goal difference swing of seven for the Cherries to leapfrog their Merseyside rivals. Interestingly, there is one unlikely situation that would require a play-off to determine who finishes fifth.
As spotted by Opta analyst Michael Reid on X (formerly Twitter), if Bournemouth were to win 5-0 and Liverpool lose 1-0, the two teams would finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored.
It would then go to points in the head-to-head record between the teams, which would be level due to each side winning their home fixture against the other.
The next deciding factor would be away goals scored, which still wouldn’t separate them with Liverpool winning their home game 4-2 and Bournemouth claiming a 3-2 victory at the Vitality Stadium.
Head-to-head home goals are not used as a tiebreaker at any point in the process, meaning that in this instance, a one-off match would be required to decide the fifth-placed finisher.
Such a move would be unprecedented and is highly unlikely, but it should be pointed out that Bournemouth did manage to claim a 5-0 victory over Forest last season.
The fact a play-off is even being discussed highlights just how much Liverpool have underachieved over the course of this season.
They were widely expected to challenge for the Premier League title having won it last year, but they now find themselves needing to secure Champions League qualification on the final day.
Liverpool have only won 17 of their 37 league matches, losing 12 times, and failing to progress beyond the quarter-final stage of the FA Cup, Carabao Cup and Champions League.
Their disappointing form has ramped up the pressure on Arne Slot, although he is expected to remain in his role heading into next season.
However, it remains to be seen if that would change should Bournemouth pull off a miracle and leapfrog the Reds into fifth place.