It is a question of “when, not if” Sir Keir Starmer resigns as prime minister, Britain’s leading pollster has warned, as the Labour Party braces itself for a devastating set of results at the local elections on Thursday.
While Professor Sir John Curtice said the prime minister may cling on in the wake of the results because there is no clear successor to take over, he argued that the likelihood of Sir Keir leading Labour to the next general election “is very low indeed”.
It came as a devastating new assessment from polling expert Robert Hayward warned that Labour faces the “drastic” loss of more than 75 per cent of the council seats it is defending across England.
Lord Hayward predicted that Labour will lose 1,850 seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will be the biggest winners, gaining 1,550 seats, and the Greens will pick up 500.
The elections on Thursday are expected to be a moment of severe peril for the PM, who has faced a growing number of calls to resign over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
Meanwhile, Labour MPs are said to be feeling increasingly frustrated by the chaos in government, with some looking to Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner as possible successors to Sir Keir if the election results are as brutal for the government as expected.
Sir John told The Independent that it is not guaranteed that Sir Keir will be forced to resign in the immediate aftermath of the local elections because the party doesn’t “have an obvious successor”.
But he added: “Clearly, the probability that Starmer is still going to be leading Labour to the next election is very low indeed. It’s a question of when and how, not whether.”
He said that the upcoming local elections are at “risk of being the worst ever for both Labour and the Conservatives”, arguing that Labour is most likely to lose seats to Reform in “heavily pro-Leave areas” such as in the north of England.
Although he thinks Reform may not do as well as they would have done two months ago, partly as a result of the economy overtaking immigration as voters’ top concern, the negative impact of Mr Farage’s close ties with Donald Trump, and right-wing party Restore Britain eating into some of Reform’s vote share.
If you present voters with a binary choice between a Keir Starmer-led Labour government and a Farage-led Reform, Ipsos polling shows that people prefer Labour
Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos
Meanwhile, Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos, said that the elections “promise to be really difficult” for Labour, explaining that the party is facing a “perfect storm”.
“It does look like it’s going to be a disastrous night. Ipsos polling puts economic optimism at its worst on record, which goes back 48 years.
“We’ve got the Mandelson scandal alongside it, and because Labour is fundamentally defending so many seats, it does promise to be a really difficult night”, he explained.
Mr Pedley added: “One of the biggest challenges they’re going to face is in London, which is a new Labour heartland, and they’re facing challenges from Reform and the Greens there.”
However, he argued that it is not guaranteed that the PM will be forced to resign, saying: “Keir Starmer has been written off a few times in the last six months, and it’s quite common to look at the media commentary and think he’s definitely finished.
“It’s not inconceivable that he does survive because the fundamental question of who will replace him remains.
“And if you look at the polling – while he is very unpopular – if you present voters with a binary choice between a Keir Starmer-led Labour government and a Farage-led Reform, Ipsos polling shows that people prefer Labour, 40 to 31.”
Over 5,000 council seats will be up for grabs when voters in England go to the polls on Thursday in what could prove to be a decisive battle for Sir Keir’s leadership.
Reform will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s local elections, where his party increased its number of council seats by a massive 677, while the Green Party is also projected to see significant gains across the country, galvanised by a swell of popularity following the election of Hannah Spencer to parliament in Gorton and Denton in February.
One Labour MP told The Independent they are not sure if Sir Keir “has got the capacity to bring our party through this”.
“At the moment, I can’t call him the leader of the Labour Party because I’m not seeing leadership… We’re predicted to lose fantastic councils and councillors who are doing great work because of this leadership gap”.
If he wants to survive, they said, the PM “personally has to take ownership of the results”.
The latest warnings come just days after Labour MP Jonathan Brash said nobody “reasonably expects” Sir Keir to lead Labour into the next election.
The Hartlepool MP said: “I am completely fed up to the back teeth of this psychodrama in Westminster, the own goals that are coming from the heart of this government… They just need to get a grip.
“I’m completely fed up about it and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think, as far as the prime minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when, and I just think we need to get a handle on this.”
Speaking to GB News, he added: “Ultimately, we are in a situation where I don’t think anyone reasonable expects the prime minister to lead the party into the next election and I think we have to refocus this government on the priorities of the British people.”