The battle to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is shaping up to become a two-horse race between Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting as Labour MPs admit they cannot wait for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and launch a leadership challenge.
The former deputy prime minister and health secretary have been among the favourites to become the next Labour leader for months, alongside the Greater Manchester mayor, who remains the most popular option with the party membership.
However, Mr Burnham would have to return to Westminster as an MP to launch a leadership challenge, prompting his allies to call for any race to succeed Sir Keir to be postponed until he can secure a seat in parliament – even as Labour has been warned to expect “apocalyptic” local and devolved election results next week.
Only the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group of MPs is determined to hold on for him, but it does not have the numbers to force the issue.
One MP noted: “We cannot wait for Andy. He might be the most unifying candidate, but he’s not here and there seems to be no obvious path for him to come soon.”
Meanwhile, The Independent understands that both Ms Rayner and Mr Streeting “have the numbers” of MPs to launch leadership bids, with pressure expected to ramp up as the dire state of the party’s support becomes clear after next week’s election results.
Labour canvassers in London boroughs such as Barking and Dagenham, where the party previously held unchallenged control, and postal box sampling in Birmingham have suggested that the result could be “even worse than expected”.
Earlier this week, polling expert Lord Robert Hayward predicted that Labour would lose more than 1,800 seats, and one Labour MP told The Independent: “It will be curtains for the PM.”
Ms Rayner, who is still awaiting a judgment from an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs, is widely believed to have greater support among the Labour Party membership than Mr Streeting, who is ideologically on the right wing of the party.
Already, an “anybody but Ange” briefing operation has started to aid Mr Streeting and prevent a takeover by the left of the party.
A supporter of Ms Rayner said: “She definitely has the number to launch a challenge. Not to have a coup.” Leadership candidates need to be nominated by 81 MPs.
While one source close to Ms Rayner pushed back on the idea that she is actively considering a leadership bid, they did not deny that she will be forced to make a decision after the elections, with Sir Keir also dangling an offer to return to the cabinet in front of her in a bid to see off any threat to his position.
One ally of Ms Rayner said: “The ‘anybody but Ange’ briefing is a desperate attempt to get Wes in.”
Meanwhile, support for other leadership candidates appears to have fallen away.
A bid to position energy secretary Ed Miliband as a compromise candidate was met with a backlash from many Labour MPs.
“We cannot relive his leadership again,” one noted. “He’s more realistic as Starmer’s next chancellor or Angela’s chancellor,” said another party source.
And while home secretary Shabana Mahmood “has her supporters”, including former PM Sir Tony Blair, she “will not get off the starting blocks” because she is considered “far too right wing”, having alienated some MPs on the left of the party with her hardline stance on immigration.
But one Labour MP to furiously react against the manoeuvring was former shadow chancellor John McDonnell.
He blasted: “We’re six days off vitally important elections battling against the far right and the factions around leadership contenders are fighting like rats in a sack and aiming to bounce us into an undemocratic stitch up. Maybe it’s time party members raised their voices rather than PLP cliques.”
Regardless of who succeeds Sir Keir, there is a growing acknowledgement among Labour MPs that a change of leadership will likely be required soon after next week’s local elections, with the prime minister’s authority expected to be at an all-time low.
Both the Greens and Reform UK are set to make major gains from Labour across England, while a minister has also admitted: “We have already written Wales off”.
Only in Scotland, where Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for Starmer to quit, are there hopes of “small gains” because of the relative unpopularity of the SNP after 19 years of running Holyrood.
After the damage done in the Peter Mandelson scandal and “loss of political capital” in forcing Labour MPs to vote to block an inquiry into him, several MPs believe Sir Keir is “finished”.
Ministers also question whether “he has the political strength” to go ahead with a major reshuffle, which is planned in the days after the elections as he tries to reset his government.
“He may want to get rid of [chancellor] Rachel [Reeves] but is he even in a position to do that? If he goes ahead with sacking Wes [Streeting] he will trigger an immediate leadership election,” one said.
Another suggested: “He may be forced to reshuffle junior ministerial posts and get rid of non-entities like [tech secretary] Liz Kendall.”
His allies, however, believe there is still a chance Sir Keir could cling on to the leadership, largely because of the absence of a main rival.
One said: “It is very difficult to replace a leader and a contest between Angela and Wes will split the party. It would be a disaster.”
Another said: “The PM will not give up easily.”