Sir Keir Starmer is battling a growing rebellion over the decision to block Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election in the city, with around 50 Labour MPs having signed a letter objecting to it.
They are understood to have written to the prime minister and the chair of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to warn that the decision is a “real gift” to Reform UK, as polling suggests Mr Burnham may be Labour’s “very best chance at winning” the vacant Gorton and Denton seat.
But the row comes as a new YouGov poll suggests Labour may be closing the gap on Reform, with support increasing two points to 21 per cent, while Nigel Farage’s party are on 25 per cent (up one).
However, the signatories of the letter said there was “no legitimate reason” to block Mr Burnham, demanding Labour’s NEC “re-evaluate” the decision.
It came after a 10-strong group from the ruling body, including Sir Keir, voted to deny Mr Burnham permission to run in the Greater Manchester by-election at a meeting on Sunday.
Critics have accused Sir Keir and his allies of preventing Mr Burnham’s candidacy for factional reasons, fearing a leadership challenge from the mayor as both Labour’s poll ratings and his personal approval ratings flounder.
But the prime minister has insisted that an extra election for the mayor of Manchester would “divert our resources” away from the local elections, which are already expected to be extremely bruising for Labour.
In the face of growing demands to reconsider, housing secretary Steve Reed on Tuesday said the decision is “done and it’s dusted” and the party will “fight to win” the by-election.
Speaking to Times Radio, he also insisted the decision to block Mr Burnham had “absolutely nothing to do” with avoiding a leadership bid against Sir Keir.
“It’s got absolutely nothing to do with that at all”, he said. “Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee took a decision overwhelmingly… that Andy should stay as mayor of Manchester because he was elected only two years ago to serve a four-year term.”
It came after Reform leader, Mr Farage, said he thinks the Manchester mayor not standing in the by-election has boosted his party’s chances of winning the seat, admitting it “would have been very difficult for us to beat him”.
The Gorton and Denton by-election is expected to take place on February 26, after former MP Andrew Gwynne stood down for health reasons.
Reform UK will announce its candidate for the contest on Tuesday at a press conference in the constituency, one day after Mr Farage claimed his party’s chances are “considerably better” than before as a result of Labour’s decision.
Labour’s political rival from the left, the Green Party, is also eyeing up its chances in the race.
Jostling over the Gorton and Denton by-election comes as Sir Keir is set to begin a trip to China, removing him from the domestic political arena for several days.
On Monday, the prime minister was among the senior Labour figures trying to focus the minds of his MPs on the by-election, after he faced criticism for blocking Mr Burnham’s application to stand in the race.
Former cabinet minister and backbencher Louise Haigh said over the weekend that Labour’s ruling body should reverse its decision “otherwise I think we’ll all come to regret this”, while Simon Opher MP called the decision an “own goal” for Sir Keir’s advisers.
Meanwhile, left-wing backbencher Kim Johnson said the prime minister “needs to consider his own position” after the decision to block Mr Burnham from standing, claiming it shows Sir Keir is not putting the country before the party.
But defending the decision, Sir Keir insisted the “battle of our times” was between Labour and Reform UK.
And at a gathering of Labour’s backbench MPs on Monday night, which saw many ask questions about the impact of the decision to block Mr Burnham, attorney general Lord Hermer – a close ally of the PM – urged MPs not to focus on the party’s internal politics.
Meanwhile, Labour chair Anna Turley was said to have spoken about the need to go into the election with a “positive message”.
But senior figures within the party have reportedly conceded in private that they expect to now lose the by-election after Mr Burnham was blocked from standing.
It came after sources told The Times that some fear Labour could be pushed into third place behind Reform and the Greens, after Sir Keir decided losing the seat was a price worth paying for retaining the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
And allies of Mr Burnham, who said he was disappointed by the move in a statement released on Sunday, have meanwhile told The Guardian that he has not entirely ruled out the prospect of a return to Westminster in future.
The newspaper also said Sir Keir has offered support to the Manchester mayor to run in another north-west seat in 2027, nearer to the end of his mayoralty when Labour can line up a strong replacement figure.
However, leading polling expert, Lord Robert Hayward, who is also a Conservative peer, has warned Labour is making the same mistakes as the Tories did at the end of their government in focussing on trying to change leader.
He said: “What will happen is that Labour MPs will start to say ‘we need to try something different’ and get themselves into that mentality.
“It is just like the Conservatives after Boris Johnson. Of course it is all predicated on Keir Starmer’s poor personal ratings and those of his party under his leadership.
“Logic actually tells you that it won’t make any difference at all and it didn’t for the Conservatives. But things get so bad that the ‘we need to try something different’ mentality takes hold. Labour are repeating the same mistakes.”