The UK is set to see a 60 per cent rise in glaucoma cases by 2060, researchers warn, labelling the common eye condition a “demographic timebomb” that can cause blindness if left untreated. They insist “serious planning and action now” is needed to ensure future patients receive timely diagnosis and care.
This projection follows new analysis suggesting over one million people in the UK may already have glaucoma, a figure higher than previous estimates.
Experts are urging annual eye checks for those in middle age and calling for awareness campaigns to address late diagnosis.
Glaucoma damages the optic nerve, connecting the eye and brain, and is most common in people over 50. It typically develops slowly over many years without symptoms.
Researchers from UCL and Moorfields Eye Hospital said previous estimates suggest about 700,000 people in the UK are living with glaucoma, but this figure “may not reflect the current population structure”.
Using the most recent census data, the team estimates that 1.1 million people in the UK currently have the condition, the equivalent of 3% of the population over the age of 40.
This is estimated to rise to 4% among people of African descent, and 11% in people over the age of 85.
Glaucoma symptoms
According to the NHS
Glaucoma does not usually have symptoms and most people do not realise they have it. It develops slowly over many years and is usually picked up during routine eye tests.
Glaucoma usually affects both eyes, but it may be worse in 1 eye.
Sometimes glaucoma can develop suddenly and cause symptoms such as:
- intense eye pain
- a red eye
- tenderness around the eyes
- seeing rainbow-coloured circles around bright lights
- blurred vision
- feeling sick (nausea) and being sick
- a headache
Other conditions can cause similar symptoms, including uveitis and an eye injury.
Lead author Professor Paul Foster, a UCL Institute of Ophthalmology researcher and consultant ophthalmic surgeon at Moorfields Eye Hospital, said: “Glaucoma is a common cause of blindness, but it isn’t symptomatic until its later stages, so regular tests are important for early diagnosis.
“Previous studies have estimated that half of glaucoma cases are undiagnosed, and this is even higher among some ethnic minority groups who are more likely to experience delays in diagnosis.
“Late diagnosis comes with a higher risk of sight loss and higher costs of care; over 40% of glaucoma patients in the UK experience vision loss that could have been prevented with earlier diagnosis and treatment such as eye drops or surgery.”
Elsewhere, the study – published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology – suggests that glaucoma cases in the UK will rise to 1.6 million by 2060 based on population predictions from the Office for National Statistics.
This finding underscores the need to expand ophthalmology services to meet the expected rise in demand, researchers said, as well as ensuring people have access to specialist eye care.
Prof Foster added: “Our findings show that there will be a large increase in glaucoma cases in the UK, so there’s a growing need to expand eye health services to meet this demand, including specialist care and diagnostic capacity.
“Awareness campaigns encouraging people to get their eyes checked are also needed as part of targeted early detection strategies, particularly to address late diagnosis in underserved, hard to reach populations.
“For people in midlife onwards, it’s important to get your eyes checked annually by your optician, to detect changes that haven’t yet caused any symptoms.”
Joanne Creighton, chief executive of Glaucoma UK – which commissioned the research, said: “This new study reveals a reality where over one million adults aged 40 and above are currently living with glaucoma – many of them without knowing, and potentially losing sight which they will never be able to recover.
“This landmark study also predicts a 60% increase in glaucoma cases by 2060, rising from just over one million to 1.61 million. This is a demographic timebomb, and we need serious planning and action now to prepare to diagnose, treat, and support these future patients.
“These findings highlight why routine eye tests are more important than ever before.”