Reform UK’s lead in the polls has dramatically dropped in an end of year survey, leading polling experts to suggest support for Nigel Farage’s party may have peaked.
A YouGov poll carried out on 21 and 22 December has shown that Reform’s vote share has dropped by three points to 25 per cent, their lowest for more than six months.
Meanwhile, both Labour and the Tories have gained two points, up to 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice noted that Reform have been on a steady decline since peaking at an average of 32 per cent in September.
He said: “Reform averaging 29 per cent this month though only five companies polled. This is compared with the peak tally of 32 per cent in September and has slipped a point a month since.
“The Tories are now losing 28 per cent of their 2024 support to Reform rather than 34 per cent in September and are up a couple of points overall. There is not much consistent sign of a Labour recovery though.”
Another expert, Lord Robert Hayward, said that the result appears to confirm that support for Nigel Farage’s Reform is “in decline”.
He pointed to a poll commissioned by former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft over the weekend which suggested that Reform was on 25 per cent and the Conservatives just three points behind on 22 per cent. Although in that poll Labour was on 18 per cent.
He said: “Both polls show clear Reform decline and Tory rise. I’m confused by Labour figures.”
Pollster Luke Tryl from More in Common added: “This definitely does appear Reform are down from their highs.”
The YouGov poll also suggests that the surge in populist leftwing support for the Greens is also going into reverse, down two points to 15 per cent.
But the fall in support for Reform appears to have coincided with a number of recent struggles by Mr Farage and his party.
The Reform UK leader has been accused of using racist and antisemitic language during his school days, which he has denied.
Meanwhile, their mayoral candidate for Hampshire, former rear admiral Chris Parry, has also been embroiled in racism allegations after suggesting deputy prime minister David Lammy should “go home” to the Caribbean even though he was born and brought up in London.
Added to that Reform has faced embarrassment and questions over their Russia links following the conviction of the party’s former Welsh leader Nathan Gill for taking money from Vladimir Putin’s regime.
The poll also showed a small increase for the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.
But the findings could be good news for Sir Keir Starmer and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, both of whom were entering 2026 with question marks over their political futures.
However, the likelihood is that both will still need better than expected results in the May elections in Scotland, Wales, London and English councils to ensure they are not replaced as leaders of their parties.