Andy Burnham is the clear favourite to win a Labour leadership contest, as new polling suggests he would decisively beat Sir Keir Starmer in a race.
The current Mayor of Greater Manchester has made it clear he has his sights set on No 10, as he prepares to fight a by-election that would pave his way back to Parliament to launch an official leadership bid.
Despite almost 100 MPs calling for his resignation in the wake of disastrous local election results, Sir Keir has vowed to fight any future challenge to his leadership.
But new polling by YouGov clearly suggests that in a contest between Mr Burnham and Sir Keir, the former would win.
The polling 59 per cent said they would back the mayor while only 37 per cent would support the prime minister.
Overall, Mr Burnham would be Labour members’ preferred candidate for leader, with 47 per cent saying he would be their first choice for the job.
Some 31 per cent ranked Sir Keir as their first choice, followed by former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner on 8 per cent.
Just 4 per cent ranked Mr Streeting as their first choice, with 57 per cent saying he was wrong to resign as health secretary and 15 per cent backing him in a head-to-head contest with the prime minister.
Polling experts Professor Sir John Curtice and Lord Robert Hayward also said that Mr Burnham will become the next Labour leader if he wins the by-election.
Mr Burnham has announced he intends to fight in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, paving the way for his return to parliament and means to challenge the prime minister.
In what was widely seen as a leadership pitch on Monday, Mr Burnham has said a vote for him would be a vote to “change Labour”.
Sir Keir said on Monday that he would support “100 per cent” whoever is the Labour candidate for the seat, which is seen as a two-horse race between Reform and Labour.
But he insisted he will not set a timetable for his departure, even if Mr Burnham returns to parliament.
Asked about setting a date for standing down, he said: “I’m not going to do that. It is obviously a very important by-election.”
If Sir Keir does not resign, Mr Burnham would need to secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, potentially setting up a contest with the prime minister for party members’ votes.
Allies of the Greater Manchester mayor have claimed Downing Street is involved in a plot to derail Mr Burnham’s hopes of returning to parliament.
The Independent revealed that Labour MPs have been told by allies of Sir Keir that Mr Burnham could bring back former leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled in 2024 in a row over antisemitism.