The FTSE 100 closed lower on Tuesday after a bright start, amid caution ahead of the soon-to-expire ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The FTSE 100 closed down 110.99 points, 1.1%, at 10,498.09. The FTSE 250 ended 31.51 points higher, 0.1%, at 22,971.72, and the AIM All-Share rose just 0.09 of a point at 808.43.
US president Donald Trump told CNBC he thinks the US is “going to end up with a great deal” with Iran to end the war, but added he does not expect to extend the ceasefire which is due to expire on Wednesday.
“I think they have no choice,” Mr Trump said during an interview, when asked what he expected to come out of a second round of peace negotiations with Iran.
“We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders,” the American leader said.
The White House said vice president JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for new negotiations with Iran.
However, Iran’s position remains uncertain as it accused Washington of violating the fragile truce through its blockade of the country’s ports and the seizure of a ship.
Brent oil traded higher at 98.03 US dollars a barrel on Tuesday afternoon, compared to 94.45 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Monday.
Shore Capital analyst James Hosie thinks a continuation of the current tenuous ceasefire appears the most likely immediate outcome.
But he senses that the impact of continued disruption to global oil supplies is being “under-estimated” by the market.
“In our view, this should at least keep spot Brent prices in the 90-100 dollars per barrel range until a robust peace deal is achieved, with any military escalation likely to drive a further price spike,” he said.
In European equities on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt fell 0.6%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1%.
Apple was down 1.9% after the iPhone maker announced chief executive Tim Cook will be stepping aside after 15 years at the helm.
Mr Cook will become executive chair, and will be succeeded by John Ternus, current senior vice president of Hardware Engineering.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury stretched to 4.30% on Tuesday compared to 4.26% on Monday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury widened to 4.91% from 4.89%.
The pound eased to 1.3507 dollars on Tuesday afternoon from 1.3535 dollars on Monday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1498 euro from 1.1486 euro.
Figures showed a surprise drop in the UK unemployment rate to 4.9% in the three months ended February, from 5.2% in the three months to January. It had been expected to stay unchanged.
Average earnings excluding bonuses increased 3.6% in the three months to February, slowing from 3.8% in the three months to January, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Including bonuses, they rose 3.8%, more than the expected 3.6% but less than the prior growth of 4.1%, revised upwards from 3.9%.
“The lower-than-expected level of the unemployment rate suggests a little less vulnerability ahead of the energy shock than had previously appeared to be the case, while underlying average earnings growth continues to soften,” said Allan Monks, an analyst at JPMorgan.
But Deutsche Bank chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said “underlying weakness persists” and the “unfolding energy shock will also revive fears of higher unemployment in the near-term”.
The euro traded lower against the greenback, falling to 1.1747 dollars on Tuesday from 1.1786 dollars on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 159.43 yen, up from 158.58.
On the FTSE 100, aerospace firms Rolls-Royce and Melrose Industries fell 6.5% and 4.2%, continuing their roller-coaster run amid the Middle East war.
M&G fell 2.0% as Goldman Sachs downgraded to “neutral” from “buy”, noting shares have risen more than 50% in the last 12 months and outperformed peers over the period.
AB Foods fell 2.7% after confirming plans to demerge its Primark retail business, following a strategic review announced last November.
It is intended that both Primark and FoodCo will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and, given their scale, both are expected to be constituents of the FTSE 100 index.
Chair Michael McLintock said: “The opportunities ahead for both Primark and FoodCo are considerable and the board firmly believes that each will thrive as an independent entity.”
The news came alongside weaker-than-expected half-year results and soft guidance for its Sugar business.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted that the demerger news was “overshadowed” by “falling profits and an uncertain outlook”.
AB Foods said pre-tax profit fell 8.7% to £632 million in the 24 weeks that ended February 27 from £692 million a year prior, missing the £710 million consensus cited by RBC Capital Markets.
Elsewhere, Crest Nicholson plunged 35% after it lowered sales and profit expectations for the current financial year and warned of higher debt than forecast.
The Surrey-based housebuilder said it is acting “quickly and decisively” to prioritise cash and balance sheet strength whilst the uncertainty caused by the Middle East crisis persists.
In a trading update, the firm said there has been a reduction in new inquiries and visitor levels since its last update in March, a “marked” softening in sentiment among prospective land purchasers and that buyers have become more cautious.
Gold traded at 4,744.11 dollars (£3,509) an ounce on Tuesday, down from 4,806.14 dollars (£3,555) at the same time on Monday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Compass Group, up 0.79p at 29.25p, Relx, up 73.00p at 2,779.00p, SSE, up 67.00p at 2,583.50p, London Stock Exchange Group, up 238.00p at 9,650.00p and Experian, up 66.50p at 2,914.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Rolls Royce, down 82.00p at 1,180.40p, Melrose Industries, down 23.60p at 532.40p, BAE Systems, down 94.50p at 2,145.00p, Endeavour Mining, down 203.00p at 4,737.00p and Coca-Cola HBC, down 180.00p at 4,205.00p.
Wednesday’s global economic calendar has UK inflation figures at 7am and eurozone consumer confidence figures.
Wednesday’s local corporate calendar has trading statements from consumer goods firm Reckitt Benckiser, distribution and services company Bunzl and wealth and asset manager Aberdeen.