The apocalypse is closer than it ever has been, according to the experts behind the Doomsday Clock.
The clock now stands at 85 seconds to midnight – down from 89 seconds last year. That was already the closest it had ever been, and it has been moved closer in three of the last four years.
Experts including world leading scientists pointed to the dangers of global war as well as climate change and artificial intelligence in explaining their decision.
The clock is managed by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the clock in 1947 to track the tensions of the Cold War. In 1953, it came as close as it did in that era, at two minutes to midnight.
In the time since, the clock has reflected optimism about peace, ticking as much as 17 minutes away from apocalypse in 1991. But it has been almost unstoppably falling towards midnight ever since – challenging the scientists behind it, who have been forced to use seconds rather than minutes to communicate the danger.
“Of course, the Doomsday Clock is about global risks, and what we have seen is a global failure in leadership,” nuclear policy expert Alexandra Bell, the Bulletin’s president and CEO, told Reuters. “No matter the government, a shift towards neo-imperialism and an Orwellian approach to governance will only serve to push the clock toward midnight.”
Last year, experts had moved the clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds. They said then that the move was intended to send a “stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster”.
This time around it has moved by four seconds.
“In terms of nuclear risks, nothing in 2025 trended in the right direction,” Bell said. “Longstanding diplomatic frameworks are under duress or collapsing, the threat of explosive nuclear testing has returned, proliferation concerns are growing, and there were three military operations taking place under the shadow of nuclear weapons and the associated escalatory threat.
“The risk of nuclear use is unsustainably and unacceptably high.”
Bell pointed to Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran and border clashes between India and Pakistan. Bell also cited continuing tensions in Asia including on the Korean Peninsula and China’s threats toward Taiwan, as well as rising tensions in the Western Hemisphere since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office 12 months ago.
The last remaining nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia, the New START treaty, expires on February 5. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed in September that the two countries agree to observe for another year the limits set under the pact, which caps each side’s number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550. Trump has not formally responded. Western security analysts are divided about the wisdom of accepting Putin’s offer.
Trump in October ordered the U.S. military to restart the process for testing nuclear weapons after a halt of more than three decades. No nuclear power, other than North Korea most recently in 2017, has conducted explosive nuclear testing in more than a quarter century.
No country would benefit more from a full-scale return to such testing than China, given its continued push to expand its nuclear arsenal, according to Bell, a former senior official at the US State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence and Stability.
Trump has upended the world order. He sent U.S. forces to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, threatened other Latin American countries, vowed to restore U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere, talked about annexing Greenland and imperiled transatlantic security cooperation.
Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and there is no end in sight. Among the weapons Russia has used is the nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile. Russia released video in December of what it said was the deployment of the Oreshnik in Belarus, a move meant to boost the Russian ability to strike targets across Europe.
“Russia, China, the United States and other major countries have become increasingly aggressive and nationalistic,” Bell said.
Their “winner-takes-all great power competition” undermines the international cooperation needed to reduce risks of nuclear war, climate change, misuse of biotechnology, potential AI-related hazards and other apocalyptic dangers, Bell said.
Bell also cited Trump’s domestic actions against science, academia, the civil service and news organizations.
Maria Ressa, a 2021 Nobel Peace Prize recipient for her journalistic efforts exposing abuses of power in the Philippines including how social media platforms were used to spread disinformation, participated in the announcement.
“We are living through an information Armageddon – the crisis beneath all crises – driven by extractive and predatory technology that spreads lies faster than facts and profits from our division,” Ressa said in a statement.
Additional reporting by Reuters