New year, new Keir. At least, that was the plan.
The prime minister started 2026 with a “promise of renewal” and a vow the UK would turn a corner after a dismal first full year in power. In a video released on New Year’s Day, he pledged to bring down living costs and get Britain “back on track”, in an attempt to rescue his relationship with disillusioned voters and his own disgruntled MPs.
Well, just over three weeks into the new year, it’s fair to say Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t started as he’d hoped. While the prime minister’s allies might claim his attention has been diverted by the ongoing international crises over Venezuela and Greenland, this year has started much like last year ended.
There have been more humiliating U-turns – on business rates for pubs and compulsory digital ID, Labour remains stagnant in the polls, miles behind Nigel Farage’s Reform, and murmurings about whether Starmer is the right man to lead the party have grown louder.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir’s attempts to woo his own MPs by inviting them to drinks at the prime minister’s grace and favour country house, Chequers, have hit a stumbling block. Some of them are even planning to boycott the event.
“If I went, it would only be to read him the riot act,” one Labour MP told The Independent, “and I don’t think it is the right venue for that.”
Others feel snubbed. “My invite is not for weeks,” another complained. “Clearly, I am not top of the list.”
One previously loyal minister was in despair when talking to The Independent: “We just don’t seem to know what we are doing, where we are going. Colleagues go out on the morning round (on the broadcasters) to defend something and then find out we have changed our minds. It’s chaotic.”
The mood within the party remains despondent, but the need for Sir Keir to curry favour with his backbenchers has become even more urgent now that a potential path has opened up for a return to parliament for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, the man many want to replace Sir Keir as Labour leader and prime minister.
The spectre of the return of Mr Burnham to parliament is dominating the conversation in the party – a man that one backbencher described as “the only person who can save us from Nigel Farage and fascism”.
Speculation had swirled around Westminster for months that Andrew Gwynne, the MP for Gorton and Denton, would quit, allowing Mr Burnham to be elected as an MP in the resultant by-election. Mr Gwynne announced on Thursday that he was stepping down, although the mayor of Greater Manchester has yet to throw his hat in the ring.
But a vote, which would take time to organise, opens up the possibility that his rival could arrive in the Commons just as the prime minister reaches his lowest ebb, after what are widely expected to be disastrous Scottish and Welsh elections and English council elections, including London at the start of May.
The issue now is whether Sir Keir and his powerful chief of staff Morgan McSweeney will even let Burnham stand. There are murmurings of mechanisms like an all-women or all-Bame shortlist being used to prevent him from throwing his hat into the ring.
A senior minister and Burnham ally warned The Independent as far back as September last year that Starmer would block Burnham’s candidacy and has since confirmed that they think this will happen. After all, the Greater Manchester mayor would “not be just running to be an MP but running to be prime minister”.
But angry MPs have already made it clear they are not willing to put up with such Machiavellian machinations and “there will be a backlash”.
One ally said: “I think the backlash against Andy being blocked would be so bad that MPs would be up in arms and it would probably hasten Starmer’s departure.”
Others are less convinced. “Andy who?” said one MP. “Now is not the time for these games.”
But why Burnham, and not one of the other candidates already in parliament?
The Greater Manchester mayor now appears to have the backing of the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs, as well as other groups across the party. MPs who support him believe that, given the public mood, if the prime minister is replaced, it will have to be by someone “untarnished” by Starmer’s government and its unpopular decisions.
That would rule out Sir Keir’s former deputy Angela Rayner. She left government last year after it emerged that she had failed to pay enough tax on a new flat. But she is thought to believe that that is not a fatal barrier to her return to government – potentially in the top job.
“The problem is that she is no longer a minister because she was forced to resign over her taxes, rather than because she resigned on principle over welfare or two-child benefit,” one MP noted.
It would also take out health secretary Wes Streeting, whose position as a leadership candidate appears to have been strengthened by attacks against him from Starmer’s allies. And then there’s Ed Miliband, who remains popular with Labour members. Friends insist he was “inoculated” against the top job by a previous, unsuccessful stint as Labour leader between 2010 and 2015, though this has failed to quell speculation over his future.
When it comes to Mr Burnham, two issues remain. Even if he is allowed to run as the Labour candidate, could he actually win the by-election, at a time when Labour is so far behind Reform in the opinion polls?
Meanwhile, during any run for parliament, his campaign would be so high-profile that he would “have a target on his back”, as one ally put it. George Galloway’s threat to run and speculation Green leader Zack Polanski would have a go, as well as former Reform chair Zia Yusuf, has been taken as confirmation that a by-election “would not exactly be straightforward to win”, as one ally noted.
Regardless of whether Mr Burnham returns to Westminster, there are various other pitfalls awaiting the beleaguered prime minister.
The peril Sir Keir faces is perhaps represented by the Monday flight from Glasgow Airport, which carries the bulk of Scottish MPs down to London to start the parliamentary week. Just before Christmas, this flight revealed a dividing line within the party.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, was holding an event in Scotland’s biggest city, when the split over views on Starmer’s future became apparent. As one MP said: “MPs who wanted [another leader] went to Anas’s event, those who still support Keir took the flight south.” They added: “There weren’t many people on that flight.”
There appears to be a resignation among some that Starmer will go this year, largely as a result of Labour’s struggle in the polls. A number of MPs across the north of England and the Midlands tell the same story. “If there was an election tomorrow, I would lose my seat to Reform,” said one MP whose seat was safe even in the 2019 wipeout election, when Boris Johnson led the Tories to a massive victory. Another told a similar story: “If I lose my seat, I will be the first Labour MP in 100 years to do so; I really don’t want that. But I would certainly lose to Reform at the moment.”
Even loyalists are now beginning question whether Starmer will take them into the next election. One MP said: “Look, I don’t think we should be talking about ditching Keir in May or even this year. The Tories showed us that it does not solve any problems and sends us into a doom loop. But if the polls are still bad a year before the election, then I would be the first to say to Keir ‘I think you need to give somebody else a go.’”
At his first dinner with Labour MPs and their partners at Chequers earlier this month, Sir Keir served chilli and rice. The prime minister will be hoping that an enjoyable evening of food and wine in a stately home at the foot of the Chiltern Hills will at least partly win his disgruntled Labour MPs away from potential rivals. Those who attend, that is.