Inflation is set to have eased further last month after a dip in food costs helped offset a jump in hotel prices, economists think.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to fall to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
It would mean prices across the UK are continuing to rise, but at a slower rate than before.
Inflation remained elevated throughout the summer, but October marked a turning point with the CPI rate dropping for the first time in five months.
Economists think that slightly lower prices in supermarkets will have helped inflation cool further last month.
Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that “food prices falling month-on-month” will help “drag inflation down” in November.
Food prices had risen sharply in October, official data showed, with inflation for everyday groceries such as bread, cereal, milk and coffee accelerating.
The economists predicted that this will help offset a “chunky hotel price rise” and inflation across catering, leisure and hospitality firms remaining elevated during the month, “likely as continued strong labour costs – in part due to payroll tax hikes – boost prices”.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist for Deutsche Bank, also projected the rate of CPI to fall to 3.5% in November.
“After peaking in August, we expect inflation to continue on its downward trajectory,” he said.
“Autumn Budget measures have lowered our projections for inflation for next year – particularly in the spring. Lower energy prices have also helped lower our projections.
“We see CPI landing pretty close to target from spring next year before more sustainably returning to target in 2027.”
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation at its 2% target level.
The next set of inflation data will be published a day before the Bank announces its decision on interest rates.
Most economists are expecting rates to be cut as slowing inflation, rising unemployment and a flatlining economy encourage policymakers to ease borrowing costs before Christmas.