Plaid Cymru have won a key seat in the Senedd after a Reform UK surge allowed Welsh nationalists to snatch the traditionally Labour seat away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
Lindsay Whittle, a long-standing councillor in the Penyrheol ward and leader of the group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote.
In second place was Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent – in a humiliating defeat for the party.
The election marks the first time in history that a Senedd by-election has exceeded 50 per cent turnout.
Labour has run the Welsh parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds.
But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the South Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s byelection as a bellwether for the Senedd election next May.
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, up almost 19 per cent from the 2021 result in the constituency and representing a swing from Labour of almost 27 per cent.
Mr Powell got 12,113 votes while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe trailed on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.
Nigel Farage’s party had only 495 votes four years ago and was hoping to win its first seat at the ballot box in the Caerphilly constituency. It pledged to “throw everything” at its campaign.
Mr Powell said Reform was the one party surging in Caerphilly and he thought it would form a government in Wales in 2026.
“I think, next May, we’re going to form a Reform government, so I’m looking forward to that,” he said.
“I think what we’re seeing, we’ve got more people turning out to vote now when they’ve got a party they believe in, and that’s what Reform is offering.”
“What my goal in the next coming weeks is going to be is to register more people to vote, to encourage more people to use their democratic right, and we will see different results.
“Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there’s one party that’s surging here, and you can see from tonight’s result that’s Reform UK.”
Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats getting 516 and 497 respectively.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said: “Tonight, the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear.
“They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.
“Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly,” he said.
“This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative.
“We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.
“The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.”
Mr Whittle said: “Tonight’s result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.
“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”
The by-election comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign.
When passing its last budget in March, the government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.
While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote in January is likely to be even more difficult after losing the Caerphilly seat.
The by-election was called following the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016.
There will be an inquest into his death in April next year.