There is an old Asian proverb which goes along the lines of: “He who rides the tiger must beware lest he end up inside.” Nigel Farage might be reflecting on that after his spectacular fall-out with the world’s richest man on an otherwise quiet Sunday.
Making an ally of X (Twitter) owner Elon Musk with his vast wealth and enormous influence was always going to be too tempting to refuse for a man who, for the first time in his political career, feels like he has a sniff of actually winning power.
The power of a giant social media platform and the possibility of $100m in funds seemed to be a surefire way of getting a shortcut to turning British politics on its head again, after doing it once already with Brexit.
After all, Musk had done exactly that for Farage’s friend and political ally Donald Trump in the recent US elections. What could possibly go wrong?
Well it turns out that the critics of Musk who suggest he might be an egomaniac governed by vague political instincts and a liking for extremists were pretty much on the money.
Even a cursory glance at his increasingly poisonous posts about Keir Starmer and Britain offered early proof of a man who is governed by gut feelings more than rationality when it comes to politics.
And the episode with his support for the far-right Tommy Robinson – a line which Farage rightly will not cross – has led to an extraordinary unravelling of the populist right alliance.
But the rapid response by key figures in the US connected to the Trump camp has underlined something. They have now recognised that what has happened to Farage is likely to happen to the soon-to-be 47th president.
Farage is set to be a guest of honour at the inauguration on 20 January and is hosting one of the biggest parties in Washington DC a few days before. It is fair to speculate that Musk will not be at the glitzy event supping champagne with the Reform UK leader nor will they be sat together as Trump takes the oath.
It would also be a surprise if Trump were to ditch his long-term political ally, Farage, at the behest of his newer one, Musk, but it could cause some awkward conversations.
The issue is the whispers that Trump may already be tiring of the man who helped him win in November and the way Musk seems to turn up at every event, every gathering and pronounce on policy at every turn.
There are some who have been predicting a fall-out for quite some time. Not all Maga supporters were happy to have a former progressive Democrat who made a fortune from the net zero push with Tesla cars at the table in the first place.
Trump has given him Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) as a thank you toy to play with, but how long will it keep the X boss entertained? Some have noticed difficult body language between the two already.
One of the first to go on a rapid attack after Musk’s broadside against Farage was Raheem Kassam. He is a former Farage aide who has made a name for himself as a hugely influential alternative media figure in the US working with Steve Bannon and trusted by the Farage camp. He was quick to note that Musk had very different views to the ones he is espousing now in support of Tommy Robinson.
It is likely that Farage, who has had many setbacks in a long political career, will brush this off. Indeed it helps his credibility to point out that not even Musk’s money and platform are enough for him to support the far right and Tommy Robinson.
The problem though is that it again underlines the sort of people attracted to Farage. Musk is not the first one to espouse far-right views to ally themselves with the Reform UK leader. Ukip was full of such extremist characters. Many who were joining Reform on Farage’s magic ticker held such views.
Indeed, it is being claimed that since the Tommy Robinson spat many who agree with Musk are leaving Reform “but the ticker only goes forwards not backwards” so we do not know how many.
The greatest issue though is what makes Musk wrong in saying Farage needs replacing. We saw in the election that Reform jumped from a fringe political party to one which took 15 per cent of the vote once Farage returned.
The party’s contract with the people – a manifesto in another form – was so threadbare and full of holes that it could not sustain anything real in terms of a serious prospect. For Reform to replace the Tories and maybe form a government the party cannot do it without Farage.
But what this does is expose is Reform like other populist parties across the West is a personality-driven project sustained by egos. Once those egos turn on one another there is not much left to fall back on. The same can be said for Maga and Trump.
Musk’s dalliance with right-wing extremism has brought a fracture that could easily be predicted but has happened far sooner than many expected.
For Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives along with the traditional centre right in the West this is an opportunity to reestablish themselves with a less extreme and more substantial offer.