Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 of the seats the party won in July if an election was held today, a new poll has shown.
The first major seat-by-seat analysis after the general election presents a fresh political blow for Sir Keir Starmer who has overseen a rocky start to his leadership of the country.
Labour, which won a landslide victory in the general election, would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP, the MRP polling from think tank More in Common found.
The analysis, which used survey data of more than 11,000 people and was carried out for The Sunday Times, showed a near wipeout for Sir Keir in regions where his party saw significant gains, including the West Country where many newly elected MPs have faced a backlash over changes to inheritance tax rules for farmers.
The party has also faced criticism over gifts for the prime minister and senior cabinet ministers. Earlier this month ministers were heavily criticised over a decision not to provide compensation to Waspi women.
And with many of Labour’s gains reversed, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would emerge as the third-largest parliamentary party, under the analysis, which comes just weeks after a Techne UK tracker poll found Reform made a dramatic three-point jump in the polls in a week.
This week, a row broke out over Reform’s claim it now has more members than the Conservative Party.
The More In Common polling suggested the country was now on track for a hung parliament, with Labour winning just over a third of the seats if an election was held today.
In a poll, the analysis showed that seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats, six of them to Reform, with Wes Streeting, the health secretary, losing Ilford North to an independent candidate.
Others losing to Reform include deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, defence secretary John Healey, energy secretary Ed Miliband, education secretary Bridget Phillipson and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds.
The overall seat totals for the parties if an election was held now, according to the poll:
- Labour: 228 seats – down from 412
- Conservatives: 222 seats – up from 121
- Reform UK: 72 seats – up from 5
- Liberal Democrats: 58 seats – down from 72
- Scottish National Party: 37 seats – up from 9
- Independent: 8 seats – up from 6
- Plaid Cymru: 4 seats – remain from 4
- Green Party: 2 seats – down from 4
To hold a majority in the House of Commons, a political party needs at least 326 seats out of the possible 650.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, said: “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.
“Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election.
“While the new government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other Budget measures have landed badly.
“The pressure from the public is now on the government to deliver.”
More In Common said its polling also showed that electoral fragmentation has significantly increased since the general election in July.
According to the projection, the next general election could mark the end of Britain’s two-party system, with 271 seats won with less than a third of the vote.