Winter fuel payment latest: Starmer and Reeves face Tuesday showdown with rebels as MPs vote on divisive cut

11am: Sir Keir Starmer will start his day by addressing the Trades Union Congress conference. The PM will argue he has been “forced” to make difficult economic decisions because of the “crisis we have inherited”.

12pm: Foreign secretary David Lammy will welcome US secretary of state Antony Blinken as part of strategic talks on the future of the “special relationship” between the two countries. Expect a joint presser around 12:30pm.

2pm: MPs will vote on the government’s plans to cut the winter fuel allowance for around 10 million people. This could be the second major rebellion facing Sir Keir since Labour took government. Seven MPs recently had the whip suspended for voting against the government.

5pm: Conservative MPs will eliminate another leadership contender as the field is whittles down to the final four. Chairman of the 1922 Committee Bob Blackman will announce the result. A reminder that Priti Patel was eliminated in the last round.

The Conservative leadership race is beginning to heat up with another contender being eliminated later today.

A senior source has told my colleague David Maddox the second round will be Mr Cleverly’s for the taking.

After Dame Priti Patel was eliminated in the first round, most of her 14 votes are being projected to go to Mr Cleverly who is her neighbouring MP in Essex. MPs Alec Shelbrooke and Greg Smith have both publicly declared for Mr Cleverly.

A senior source on a rival campaign told The Independent’s political editor that round two “will be Cleverly’s day. He’s doing well among Priti Patel supporters.”

Meanwhile, sources on Tom Tugendhat’s campaign, the main rival to Mr Cleverly on the left of the party, are “quietly confident” they have secured enough votes to hold off a challenge from former work and pensions secretary Mel Stride.

Many believe it will be Mr Stride’s final day as a contender, after securing just two more votes than eliminated Priti Patel in the last round.

Expect an announcement at 5pm.

RMT union boss Mick Lynch hit out at Reeves and Starmer last night, comparing the pair to the Grinch.

Speaking to the TUC Congress, Mr Lynch said the Chancellor and the PM “will always be known as the people who stole the winter fuel allowance.”

However, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds hit back, saying it is an “unfair” comparison.

Some readers may remember Mr Lynch was likened to the mean-spirited green monster when he announced a strike by railway workers around Christmas 2022.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds rejected the suggestion that pensioners could die of cold this winter as a result of the Government’s policy.

Asked whether he and the Government accepted this was a possibility, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: “No. We are making sure that we can reassure people by saying the state pension is higher than last winter and energy bills are lower than last winter.”

However, Labour’s own 2017 research found plans to cut the fuel allowance for ten million pensioners would increase excess deaths by 3,850 that winter.

The government has also assessed the number of people who will be pushed into fuel poverty by its winter fuel payment cuts, but will not publish the figures until after MPs vote on the measure. Read the full scoop by my colleague Archie Mitchell here.

Sir Keir Starmer will be facing a potential Labour rebellion on two fronts today.

MPs will vote on the government’s plans to cut the winter fuel allowance for around 10 million people around 2pm.

The MP and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have been attempting to quell anger from some Labour MPs calling for a policy U-turn.

No.10 have made it clear they will not back down from the “tough decision”, despite strong opposition from its own MPs and trade unions.

The government also faces some trouble as Up to 1,750 prisoners will be back on the streets today, after serving just 40 percent of their sentences.

Sir Keir has made it clear that no one convicted of violent crimes, sexual offences or a series of offences linked to domestic violence will be released.

However, campaigners have told my colleague Maya Oppenheim that domestic abusers are “slipping through the net”, putting victims could be placed at grave risk.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood will do a broadcast clip today to explain the release program.

It seems like it will be a busy day ahead for Labour…

The director of Age UK has warned that the winter fuel payment cut is “unfair” and “unsustainable”, after new analysis by her charity suggested around 500,000 more pensioners on low incomes than previously feared will be hit by the cut.

Caroline Abrahams said: “New Age UK analysis shows that when we said we thought two million pensioners were set to lose their Winter Fuel Payment and would struggle badly this winter as a result, we underestimated the scale of the problem caused by the government’s policy approach.”

She added: “This is unfair, and it is also unsustainable, so it’s no wonder there’s growing public concern. We would like to thank everyone who is standing with struggling pensioners this winter by signing Age UK’s Petition – which has gone through the half a million mark now – and to encourage everyone else to show solidarity by signing up too.

“As the weather chills – as it is forecast to do as early as this week – older people on low incomes will be trying to decide whether they can afford to turn their heating on or not. Our biggest fear at Age UK is that many in the two and half million group will choose not to even try to stay adequately warm, for fear of a fuel bill they won’t be able to pay.

“The fact that appreciably more older people are going to face this dilemma as a direct result of a policy decision from our incoming government is extremely regrettable, and not at all what we expected. But there is still time for Ministers to change their minds.”

The state pension is set to rise by four per cent in April, giving an extra £460 a year to recipients.

The pension triple lock means the payment rises by the highest of average weekly earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent.

Figures published on Tuesday indicated that average weekly earnings increased by four per cent in the three months to July. While inflation data has not yet been published for September, in July it stood at 2.2 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The latest boost comes amid mounting pressure on the government to scrap its plan to axe winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners.

Our political correspondent Millie Cooke has more in this breaking report:

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has urged Labour MPs to back the government’s cut to the winter fuel allowance in the vote on the plans later today.

Speaking on Times Radio, the minister said: “Fixing the foundations of the country isn’t just about difficult things like this, which are decisions that ideally you wouldn’t have to make. It’s about how you get to a better future.

“And that is exactly what we’re trying to do and that is what I would ask all colleagues to recognise and support today.”

Mr Reynolds pointed to commitments like compensation for postmasters and money for the steel industry in stressing the dire state of the public finances.

More pensioners on low incomes will be hit by the government’s cut to the winter fuel allowance than initially feared, bringing the total to 2.5 million, new analysis by Age UK suggests – up from its previous estimate of 2 million.

Analysing data from the Department for Work and Pensions, the charity now believes some 1.6 million people living in poverty will lose their winter fuel payment as they are not receiving any of the qualifying benefits.

A further 900,000 older people whose incomes are just £55 per week above the poverty line will also lose the payment, the charity said.

This new figure also excludes the unknown number of pensioners with higher incomes who are sick or disabled and who face unavoidably high energy bills as a result.

There was no discussion of softening the impact of the winter fuel cut at Cabinet on Monday, Downing Street said after a Home Office minister suggested the policy could be eased.

Whipping for the vote over the Government’s plans to scrap the winter fuel allowance for all but the country’s poorest pensioners was also not discussed at Cabinet, Downing Street said.