Rachel Reeves is set to unveil a £20 billion ‘black hole’ in public finances today, sparking rumours that Labour’s first autumn statement will bring new tax raising measures.
The chancellor is expected to reveal her findings when she releases a Treasury spending audit, setting out the strained state of government finances amid issues with cash-strapped public services.
A Labour source said that the update will reveal “the true scale of the damage the Conservatives have done to the public finances.”
It is the latest indication from the new government of its position that previous Conservative administrations have left them in a difficult position. Speaking at PMQs this week, the prime minister said that his party has found “crisis and failure everywhere.”
But Insitute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson said: “There should not be a sense of surprise there is a big issue here.”
Speaking about Ms Reeves upcoming statement, he said: “The manifesto words ‘no new taxes on working people’, means that there can be no tax rises at all.”
On the election trail, Labour ruled out any increases to National Insurance, Income Tax, or VAT. The party also committed to the lowest spending and revenue raising out of any, at £4.7bn. In contrast, the Tories pledged £17.7bn and the Lib Dems £26.8bn.
Instead, the party says it will better manage existing resources to cut costs, as well as attract investment from the private sector to help finance some public projects.
The IFS was broadly critical of this approach, with Mr Johnson calling the party’s spending plans “trivial” ahead of the election. He adds that the party “offers no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from” to finance the change it pledged.
It is now likely that the government will look to new ways to raise revenue. Here are some of the key measures they could implement in the autumn statement:
How could Labour raise taxes?
Taxing pensions savings
Pension tax relief is a reduction on the amount of tax paid on private pensions. It helps workers save for retirement by boosting their pension pots.
The amount of tax relief a person is granted is based on their Income Tax. It will effectively cancel out tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.
After this, contributions will be taxed at either 20, 40, or 45 per cent, depending on which Income Tax rate the worker falls into.
However, the chancellor is thought to be considering a flat 30 per cent pension tax relief rate. This would mean that higher earners would effectively pay 10 per cent in tax, while those on the additional rate would pay 15.
The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with 7 million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for basic rate earners, who would actually begin receive a 10 per cent boost to their pension contributions.
Evaluating the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the burden of taxation from the bottom 80 per cent to the top 20 per cent of earners.”
Treasury officials are thought to be pushing Ms Reeves to adopt the measure, a source told The Daily Telegraph.
Closing Inheritance Tax loopholes
Inheritance Tax is a levy on the estate of someone who has died. This is their property, money and possessions. Crucially, it is not paid if the value of these things are below £325,000.
The tax rate is 40 per cent, but it’s only charged on the part of the estate that’s above the threshold. In 2023/24, only 5 per cent of deaths generated an Inheritance Tax bill, raising around £7 billion.
However, the IFS writes that the tax measure “is littered with special exemptions.” These include a ‘business relief,’ the ability to pass on agricultural land tax-free, and the tax-free passing on of pension pots.
The economic think tanks says that ending these measures alone would raise £4.8bn a year by 2029.
Changing Council Tax
Council tax is a local tax which provides funding for the local authority to which it is paid. The amount will vary by area, but can range from £1,500 a year to upwards of £4,000 depending on area and property value.
The tax has been criticised as unfair, as it is still based on property values from 1991. This means many properties are effectively in the ‘wrong band,’ as property prices have changed and risen unevenly over the past few decades.
It has also come under scrutiny in recent years as cash-strapped councils look to fill the gaps in their budgets. In March, Birmingham council announced an unprecedented 21 per cent increase in council tax over two years.
All of this means it is unlikely Labour will want to try and squeeze more revenue out of the system. The party ruled out such a measure before the general election, but stopped short of mentioning it in their manifesto.
Raising Capital Gains Tax
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset that has increased in value is sold. It is applies to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assests.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are a number of ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.