Rock Melody, despite the worst draw, looked a ‘special’ at first glance for a ten-runner Fillies’ Novice Stakes over seven furlongs of ‘good to firm’ Goodwood this afternoon, a second bout of scrutiny unearthed a slight danger, once-raced course and distance Breezy Storm, from the in-form yard of Gary Moore, and so I’m far from certain of the outcome.
Three negatives, that stall, a fifty-day(s) absence for Rock Melody and an extra furlong are countered by the booking of championship-chasing William Buick, a huge plus!
Oisin Murphy appears to have a third successive title sewn up but Buick, backed by Godolphin, and William Hagaas’ stable jockey, Tom Marquand, have really raised the stakes this season; followers of the ‘big three’ have doubtless raised theirs!
Given agents representing them are working their butts off, and know all the moves, it would make good sense to confine serious bets with horses ridden by such talented jockeys; it’s a good angle readers and you know my emphasis on selections is based on jockeyship and, of course, the draw.
Realistically you can’t beat the draw, especially in handicaps but I’ve avoided them for years and hasn’t it paid off concentrating primarily on two-year-old set-weight races and novice/maiden hurdles in which it’s possible to effect a process of elimination?
On the time-handicap Rock Melody and Breezy Storm are indeed way superior; it’s my intention to concentrate on the betting market, to obtain value, by punting both because ‘shrewdies’ will definitely notice the three points I’ve made and also weigh up their options. Isn’t it fascinating?
When it comes down to ‘fillies’ only’ races you can dismiss any thoughts of ‘non-triers’ because their stud value soars with ‘winning brackets’ at any level.
A system of betting top-weight in nurseries on ‘firm’ ground, which I proffered decades ago, has become a ‘favourite’ for thousands but Adaay In Asia will be hard-pressed to concede 12lbs, plus Rose Dawes full apprentice allowance, to Whistledown in the five-runner two-year-old handicap; Mick Channon’s charge was the unluckiest short-head loser I’ve ever seen last month when ‘pitching’ in the very last stride as favourite, Amazonian Dream, and Oisin loomed with a colossal late surge.
Rose has a bright future with ordinary luck and consistent patronage.
Don’t oppose recent Chester third Invigilate, from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard, in an eight-runner Fillies’ Novice Stakes over seven furlongs at Leicester; ready and primed for Ryan Moore!
Don’t forget to click-on tomorrow, it’s vital!
Selections, Leicester, 1.40 Invigilate; Goodwood, 2.25 Rock Melody; 3.30 Whistledown (e.w).
Jeffrey Ross, horse-racing correspondent for WMN since 1983 when winning the most prestigious racing journalist award, Sporting Life Naps Table, before winning it a record number of six times collectively in the Racing Post, the current ‘trade’ paper, including 2019